What's next?

The lump in my throat is choking me. We had so much hope for this day which unfortunately was ruined, one young protester said, following the 22 Bahman events.
The Green Movement had urged its supporters to demonstrate against the regime on February 11 (22 Bahman), the anniversary of the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
The inability of the movement to perturb significantly the official commemoration, which included a speech by President Ahmadinejad, dismayed many of its supporters, and has led to much soul searching and second-guessing, I think a failure has triggered debates and tactical analyses that have been needed for a long time now. It seemed like a lot of people were tired of being brutalized and continuing to go out into the streets, one protester called Sania told the NYT.
What went wrong?
Firstly, the movement lacks coherent and effective leadership. Though MM. Mousavi and Karroubi have bravely attempted to encourage and speak for the opposition, both were, until last June’s fraudulent presidential election, regime insiders considered sufficiently ideologically pure to run in the election, hence prominent members of the establishment.
To this day, they defend the Islamic Republic and oppose the authorities, because they accuse the latter of having betrayed it. They have no plans to do away with it, merely to adhere to its principles, both democratic and Islamic, which the current authorities are now subverting.
As such, they lack credibility with many opposition supporters, particularly the young, and those who seek to establish a republic, and not resurrect the Islamic Republic founded by Ayatollah Khomeini and that has degenerated into an authoritarian, police state.
Their inability to propose a clear and viable strategy to confront the regime has undermined their authority and legitimacy, if we had a strong charismatic leader we wouldn't have marched in the streets dazed and confused yesterday. I see the opposite side as the winner today. A temporary winner. ...We don't have a central command. We were like a broken chain, thrown all over, one young university student told AP the day after 22 Bahman.
It should be said however, that the authorities have done their utmost to hinder the opposition’s efforts to organize itself effectively, even the hardliners recognize the importance of organization and, hence, expert organizers. This is exactly why Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Mohsen Aminzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi, political activists for decades who have proven to be excellent organizers, have been jailed since soon after the election. In fact, according to Nabavi, their arrest warrants were issued a few days before the election, one analyst wrote.
Nobel Peace Prize recipient, Shirin Ebadi defended the leaders of the movement, arguing that they have done as much as they could do, and that is that they have given the people the courage to express their demands. They’ve inspired the people to go to the streets and make their demands heard, she told AP.
Yet, Mousavi and Karroubi need to organize the movement into a coherent organization and articulate a set of fundamental objectives, and a strategy to realize them.
Opposition followers need inspiration no doubt, but also clear directives. It is the leadership’s responsibility to provide them.
Defective leadership, in turn, produced faulty strategy.
The huge demonstrations that followed Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent election victory led to brutal repression and mass arrests.
As such, opposition leaders have been reticent since last summer to mobilize their followers, fearing a major police crackdown.
As a result, they have attempted to hijack official gatherings organized by the regime, and transform them into vast anti-government demonstrations: Quds Day in September, 13 Aban in November (commemorating the takeover of the US Embassy thirty years ago), Ashura in December, for instance.
The Green Movement’s tactics have thus been predictable thereby facilitating the task of the security forces. Clearly rattled by the opposition’s success at mobilizing its supporters last December, and aware of its intention to renew the feat at the next official commemoration, 22 Bahman, the security forces had plenty of time to prepare, all the while pursuing its policy of intimidating political opponents through arrests and executions.
Not surprisingly, opposition protesters were overwhelmed by the vast security presence. Its Trojan horse tactic whereby demonstrators reveal the green apparel they were concealing under conservative, conventional garb at the appropriate signal failed. Their inability to identify other opposition supporters in the crowd led to confusion and hesitation.
There was also a lack of coordination between various factions of the movement present in the streets.
The Iranian Diaspora played a significant role as well, helping fuel expectations that the 22 Bahman events would deal the regime a potentially fatal blow. There were talks about "over 3 million opposition forces" attending the rally. I think this is a perfect example of where the virtual world and the expat community circulate their visions of sugar plum fairies on TV stations, and thus have become liability to the movement. When you raise expectation above the real capacity of a movement , that only results in disappointment and despair, one blogger recounted.
If modern means of communication clearly helped the opposition develop and mobilize, Facebook Tweeter and YouTube are not sufficient to sustain a political movement.
What is paramount? A galvanizing message, and the militants willing to take substantial risks to disseminate it. It is not technology per se that has the power to change the world, but rather the motivations (both good and evil) of the people using it, wrote Luke Allnut, Editor-in-Chief of RFE/RL’s English-language website.
Emboldened by its clear victory over the opposition, the regime is not about to alleviate its pressure on all those who question its legitimacy.
The struggle is far from over, however, and a regime that felt compelled to mobilize all of its resources to stifle the opposition and ensure it would not spoil its commemoration is clearly worried about the future.
The Green Movement is still very much alive, but needs to reinvent itself, and regain the initiative. It is a vibrant, dynamic movement. Its strategy and tactics should reflect that.
There is no doubt that the future belongs to Iran’s youth, which yearns for democracy and justice.
As one nineteen-year-old student told AP, he and his friends will remain reformists until the end of our lives.
(The photograph above of the 22 Bahman events is by Abedin Taherkenareh EPA)