It's a defeat, for now

Could they repeat last December’s feat?
Did the Green Movement still possess the necessary momentum and stamina to transform the regime’s commemoration of the thirty-first anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on February 11 (22 Bahman) into a significant anti-government demonstration, thereby further destabilizing the regime?
Last December, hundreds of thousands of Iranians fearlessly marched in the streets of Tehran and other cities to denounce the regime’s confiscation of power.
The security forces killed at least ten people, including Mir Hussein Mousavi’s nephew, Ali.
This time, both MM. Mousavi and Karroubi called their supporters to seize the opportunity offered by the 22 Bahman events to protest anew.
The authorities, clearly anxious to prevent the opposition from displaying once again its prowess and vibrancy, warned potential protesters that they would be firmly dealt with, we are closely watching the activities of the sedition movement and several people who were preparing to disrupt the 11 February rallies were arrested. If anyone wants to disrupt this glorious ceremony, they will be confronted by people and we too are fully prepared, Esmil Ahmadi-Moghaddam, the Tehran chief of police said.
Furthermore, the regime’s campaign of intimidation and arrests continued unabated.
According to the International Campaign for Human rights in Iran, some 1000 have been detained in the past two months, with journalists a target of choice. Forty-eight are currently in jail, more than in any other country, according to Reporters without Borders.
Last week, five protesters were prosecuted and could face the death penalty should they be convicted. Mohammad Amin Valian, a twenty-year-old student, was charged with Moharebeh or enmity against God, a capital offense, for having thrown rocks and shouted hostile, anti-government slogans during a demonstration. He also happened to be a particularly active member and organizer of the Central Council of the Islamic Student Association…
Two protesters were recently hanged and nine other are currently awaiting execution after having been condemned to death by the regime.
In order to dissuade all anti-government activity, the regime is cynically manipulating the Islamic legal code to eliminate those who have been brazen enough to question its legitimacy. By doing so, it has also revealed its fundamental moral bankruptcy, exploiting Islamic law to preserve its monopoly on power and the perquisites of power, referring to holy principles to protect its earthly prerogatives.
Indeed, Moharebeh can only be invoked against those resorting to armed resistance, the condition of armed activity is essential in charging someone under Moharebeh and the person must have carried out effective actions. If these conditions are not present then the charge of Moharebeh cannot be applied, Abdolfattah Soltani, a Tehran human rights lawyer told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. The regime is clearly counting on arrests, show trials and executions to eradicate the opposition movement.
Massive crowds attended the official commemoration. Hundreds of thousands, including many originating from the provinces, filled Azadi Square to hear the speech of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, they bussed in as many people as they possibly could from many towns and locations and depositing them at Azadi Square, surrounded by and escorted by thousands of officers. I have even seen them rounding up people myself, Mehdi Karroubi’s son, Hossein, told Tehran Bureau.
A young Tehran journalist corroborated this version of events, huge numbers of people were bussed in to Tehran from rural areas and given free food, he wrote in The Guardian.
In his speech, Ahmadinejad once again affirmed that Iran was now a nuclear state, and that it possessed the capacity to enrich uranium more than 20% or even 80%, nearly the level necessary to produce a nuclear weapon. In fact, last week, he ordered the country’s nuclear industry authority to begin refining its uranium supply from 3.5% to 20%. When we say that we don't build nuclear bombs, it means that we won't do that because we don't believe in having them. The Iranian nation is brave enough that if one day we wanted to create an atomic bomb, we would announce it publicly and would create it, Ahmadinejad also said. If he denied that Iran was currently in the process of manufacturing nuclear weapons, he clearly stated that that position could change if need be. This is a decision belonging exclusively to Iran, and no one else.
As such, he defiantly told the West that we are not afraid of you…
It is no accident that the nuclear issue dominated the speech. Ahmadinejad knows that 55% of Iranians are in favor of a nuclear energy program. It is a matter of national pride, a non-negotiable issue for most Iranians.
As such, and, by reactivating the nation’s enrichment program, is Ahmadinejad seeking to provoke a crisis with the West in order to unite the nation against Western meddling and thus undermine the Green Movement?
In any case, and although loud speakers had been strategically positioned to prevent this very occurrence, shouts of Death to the Dictator could be heard during the speech. Yet, efforts by the opposition to hijack the event clearly failed.
This time, the authorities were well prepared.
In order to prevent the various and disparate groups of opposition supporters from coalescing into one massive, fearless and uncontrollable whole, the authorities took effective measures. Thousands of security forces seized control of Tehran the day before to ensure the official commemoration would go smoothly.
The scale of the crackdown is becoming clear. The security forces were lining up next to each other in rows eight men deep along the routes of the official rally, wrote The Guardian.
Security forces sealed off the site of the official rally, Azadi Square, all the side roads leading to Enghelab and Azadi streets are cordoned off by anti-riot police, Basiji militiamen and plainclothes security officials, some holding cameras, a witness told the LAT.
Azadi Square being off limits, demonstrators were able to gather near Enghelab and on Vali Square, where they clashed with the paramilitaries.
Witnesses reported seeing Revolutionary Guards and Basijis firing into the crowd.
A young woman identified as Leila Zareii by The Times was reportedly killed. The regime resorted to its usual tactics and the security forces acted swiftly each time they encountered groups of opposition demonstrators, using truncheons and tear gas abundantly. Paintballs were also employed to identify troublemakers, and facilitate their identification and arrest later on.
This time however, the regime had additional resources, having recently acquired Chinese anti-riot armored cars equipped with water canons, and helicopters.
Countless protesters managed to meet in Sadeghiyeh Square: there, to the north of Azadi, a large gathering of protesters could be seen defiantly confronting security forces with chants of «Death to the Dictator» and «political prisoners must be freed», while waving green flags and placards and moving closer toward Azadi Square, an eyewitness told the LAT.
As he was leaving his vehicle, Mehdi Karroubi was assaulted with pepper spray by paramilitaries who were clearly awaiting his arrival. The entire area was filled with Basiji from the provinces. NAJA, the law enforcement agency, had a strong presence as well. For about six minutes, a violent attack took place, a witness told Tehran Bureau.
I was in Sadeghiyeh and though people were not holding up any symbols, I think most of them were against the regime because they wouldn't respond to the official chants from the loudspeakers. The security forces attacked the crowd violently, with cables, batons, and gas. Where I was, I can say that the 22 Bahman celebrations did not take place. I saw a small gathering of regime supporters and even they were dispersed by the police.
The people were beaten and I even saw some seriously injured individuals. That's what happens when you're attacked with chains. But no shots were fired, recounted another.
Basijis also attacked Mousavi’s wife, Zahra Rahnavard; opposition supporters were able to spirit her away from the scene.
Zahra Eshraghi, Ayatollah Khomeini’s granddaughter and her husband Mohammad Reza Khatami, brother of former president Khatami, and both opposition supporters, were arrested and detained for over an hour by the security forces.
Mousavi was prevented from even joining the demonstrators by the paramilitaries.
Clashes occurred in numerous other Iranian cities including Mashhad, Esfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz and Tabriz.
Although thousands of brave Iranians filled the streets to challenge the regime, many Green supporters were clearly disappointed, everyone we have spoken to so far this morning has said about the same thing -- in a word or two: "A big anticlimax," "defeat," "An overwhelming presence from the other side". People were terrified, one source told Tehran Bureau.
There were 300 of us, maximum 500. Against 10,000 people. It means they won and we lost. They defeated us. They were able to gather so many people. But this doesn't mean we have been defeated for good. It's a defeat for now, today. We need time to regroup, one participant told AP.
It's pretty clear that Greens everywhere will feel demoralized... The overall feeling is one of disappointment, another concluded.
On the other hand, the authorities were jubilant, the massive turnout of the nation shocked the central command of the arrogant front, including the US, England and the Zionist regime, declared the deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, Major General Gholam-Ali Rashid.
Raja News, a pro-government website, declared that the 22 Bahman commemorations was a great defeat for the opposition.
The people of Tehran repelled Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami from their crowds, added Fars News, a news agency with links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Lacking leadership and a strategy, the opposition movement clearly displayed its deficiencies last Thursday. In its current state, it is in no position to alter the status quo now favoring the regime, since it is still there and thus controls the security forces and all other state powers, notably the ability to manipulate at will the internet and all mobile and text messaging services, the opposition‘s chief means of organization and communication.
As such, the movement must strive to display more imagination and flexibility.
One obvious rigidity of the protest movement in Iran is its tight attachment to important days of mourning or celebrations. This gives the regime advance warning to prepare for confrontation and also time to recoup and deal with opponents in between waves of protests, wrote Mardo Soghom of RFE/RL.
The opposition movement’s predictability renders its repression by the authorities that much easier. They should not fall into that trap. Keeping the authorities guessing as to what their next moves will be and where would be more effective, but demands leadership…
Yet, one victory for the regime does not entail the demise of the democracy movement.
Now may be the time for the movement to produce its own leadership at last and a set of clear objectives as well as a strategy and timetable to meet them. Where does it want to lead the nation and how?
We, in the West, should do our utmost to encourage and support them.
(the photograph above is by EPA)