The movement is still alive

The formal endorsement ceremony, held on Monday, was a fitting prelude to yesterday’s inauguration. The event, unlike the last time, in 2005, was not broadcast live on Iranian television, perhaps so that no one would notice the absence of so many dignitaries.
Indeed, it was boycotted by scores of officials and prominent personalities, such as Mir Hussein Mousavi , Mehdi Karroubi, a reformist candidate in last June’s election, and former presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami.
Yet, the event was nonetheless significant, for a prerequisite to yesterday’s official inauguration.
As al-Alam state television succinctly put it after the event, the official ceremony was held and Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) approved Mr Ahmadinejad's presidency.
The Supreme Leader, who described the victorious Ahmadinejad as a brave, hard-working and wise man, persisted in his drive to have him officially recognized as President, hoping to, at last, defuse the post-election controversy, regardless of the rigged electoral process, and, once again, brazenly ignored the demands of countless Iranians who have refused to countenance the election results and, thus, recognize the declared winner as their legitimate president.
Speaking disparagingly of the protest movement, he said: the enemies must know that the protests, which are caricature of the pre revolutionary ones, cannot undermine the system. We should be vigilant, as even when we are in our best situation enemies can plot against us, [and] the conspiracies of enemies must be heeded by officials and people.
He sought to rally the entire nation to his cause, warning that only Iran’s enemies could benefit from disunity at home.
And yet, hundreds if not thousands of Iranians expressed their anger in the streets, and clashed with the security forces, chanting, Death to the Dictator.
The plain clothed Basijis, with their clubs and their tear gas, strove to disperse them.
Yesterday’s inauguration took place at the Majlis, Iran’s Parliament, at Baharestan Square. Like the ceremony held two days before, it was not broadcast on television either, the first time in 12 years.
Not only did the ceremony begin behind schedule, many of the assembly seats were empty…
The list of those absent was even more impressive than on Monday. Not only did Mousavi, Rasfanjani, Khatami, Karroubi once again fail to be present, Moshen Rezaei, the only conservative candidate in last June’s election, apart from Amahdinejad, followed suit!
None of the late Ayatollah Khomeini’s family attended either. The grandson of the Father of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Khomeini was, conveniently, in Pakistan, so could not come…
Most foreign embassies either sent no one, or low level staffers.
In his inaugural speech (at the outset of which, the Reformers rose, and left), Amahdinejad neither mentioned the election controversy, nor the unrest that ensued.
Instead, he stuck to his nationalist mantra: we will resist oppressors and try to correct the global discriminatory mechanisms in order to benefit all the nations of the world, he said.
He also denounced the West for refusing to recognize his victory: this means they only want democracy which serves their interests and they don't respect people's votes and rights. Iranians will neither value your scowling and bullying nor your smiles and greetings, he added.
As he did five years ago, Ahmadinejad promised to initiate economic reforms to tackle inflation and unemployment(which worsened during his first term in office), and to stamp out corruption, a popular theme in his two presidential campaigns.
Yet, reconciliation will most certainly not be a hallmark of his second term.
At a meeting of the Association of Basiji Scholars (it seems that in Iran, even militias have their own think tanks…) held in Mashhad last week, Ahmadinejad told his audience: a new period has begun. Let me take the oath of office, and wait for the government to begin its work. Then, we'll seize them (the opposition) by their collars and stick their heads to the ceiling.
Fearing a vigorous reaction from the Iranian people, and anticipating potentially massive demonstrations, the security forces closed down the entire area around the Majlis, making it impossible for anyone to approach the event.
In addition, the area’s subway stations were closed preventing easy access to the square.
More than five thousand policemen and paramilitaries dispersed those who managed to gather and vent their outrage.
The Basijis, which included teenagers wearing camouflage apparel and wielding pickaxe handles and led pipes, confronted the demonstrators, some wearing black as if in mourning on this inauguration day, and others in green, the color of the protest movement. Arrests were made.
Haleh Sahabi, a feminist and member of the anti-war group Iranian Mothers for Peace, and daughter of a member of the very first revolutionary government in 1979, was among those detained.
Earlier, in a further attempt to undermine Mousavi, the director of his website, Qalamnews, Mir-Hamid Hassanzadeh, was also arrested.
The demonstrators chanted their signature slogan Death to the Dictator, as they were beset by the Basijis with pepper spray.
That evening however, the traditional Tehran-wide rooftop demonstration was especially vigorous, and shouts of Allahu Akbar were heard throughout the capital.
Though the hardliners, come what may, have succeeded in imposing their candidate as president, stark challenges lie ahead.
The government Ahmadinejad is to appoint must be approved by the Majlis within two weeks.
Considering the recent controversy surrounding his choice for first vice president, and the dismissal of the Intelligence chief, selecting a cabinet amenable to his unruly and divided conservative constituency may not be easy.
Secondly, the opposition has no intention of easing the pressure on Ahmadinejad and his chief patron, The Supreme Leader. Indeed, nothing that the regime has attempted in the last two months succeeded in crushing the movement, on the contrary. Its heavy handed tactics only fueled the indignation and determination of many Iranians.
As Mousavi said recently: the fact is that this movement has stayed alive, showing that the arrests will not be effective.
In addition, as schools will soon reopen for the new year, and sporting events also organized anew, opportunities to demonstrate and mobilize the people, especially the young, against the regime will be numerous.
The demand for change, democracy and justice have not been addressed, and no specious inauguration ceremony will reconcile the regime with the people it has deceived.
As one young college graduate told The New York Times: I voted for Moussavi because I want change.
The yearning to join the modern, democratic world seems intense.
How long will the regime be able to stifle it?
The longer it resists change, the less likely that the people will settle for what the regime now currently dreads: a Velvet Revolution.
The Supreme Leader and his henchman Ahmadinejad should heed this warning from an Islamic scholar.
Dr. Hashem Aghari, Professor of History at Tarbiyat-e Modarres University said:
if there is going to be a revolution in Iran, I pray that it will be of the velvet type [meaning peaceful and bloodless]. But the way things are going, I am afraid that it will be bloody.
It is up to the regime to ultimately determine its fate…
Will it have the necessary wisdom to relent, and let the Iranian people choose its own destiny?
The odds are not good…