The Fortieth Day

The Grand Mosalla mosque, Tehran, Thursday.
At his request, Mir Hossein Mousavi’s supporters will gather to commemorate the 40th day following the death of Neda Agha-Soltan (she was murdered by the paramilitaries during a demonstration last month), as well as the deaths of all the others who have paid with their lives the struggle to annul last June’s rigged presidential election.
Mousavi has asked for official permission to organize the event, stating that no speeches would be given. Only readings of the Koran would be authorized.
As such, what options does the regime retain to deal with his request ?
the country's regime has no choice but to return to the principles of the constitution and if it does not, then people will force it to return. The more people you arrest, the more the movement will spread. The killings and arrests are a catastrophe, people will not forgive those behind such crimes, Moussavi said.
Other similar events are planned, with the upcoming birthday of the 12th Imam, Imam Mahdi approaching, and the traditional festivities then organized providing the perfect opportunity:
a vast green (-themed) social movement has taken shape in the country, and it has to make best use of these occasions and unveil its initiatives. We can organize programs each day to follow up on the objectives, he wrote on his website.
He seems determined, at last, to lead, to lead his followers to victory:
our success in the future depends on our commitment to our slogans for freedom of expression and our readiness to pay costs for our commitment.
As part of their campaign to further undermine Ahmadinejad and his government, which have received the full backing of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, 69 opposition leaders, including Mousavi and former president Mohammad Khatami, wrote a letter directly to the marja taqid («source of emulation»), the nine most important clerics in Qom, the center of Shiite learning, deliberately ignoring the Supreme Leader, and appealed instead to the most influential clerics of the land (only one of which congratulated Ahmadinejad after his tainted victory in last month’s election), in order to obtain the release of those detained since the June election:
we call on you, the marja' taqid ... to remind the relevant authorities of the damaging consequences of employing unlawful methods and warn them about the spread of tyranny in the Islamic republic system.
Reports of abuse in Iranian jails have been rife.
The signatories, hence, particularly excoriated those responsible for the handling of detainees: they have resorted to illegal, immoral and un-Islamic methods to obtain confessions.. What legal, Islamic or human rights code can justify the repeated torture of those who live under the banner of Islam?
Mahdi Karroubi, a candidate himself in last month’s presidential election, also wrote his own letter to the head of Iranian Intelligence, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi, a scathing attack on the methods used by the regime to counter the unrest:
what is happening to the people of Iran, especially the women, is deplorable. Everyone has seen how the women have (been) beaten with batons and thrown to the ground — this is worse than what the Zionist criminals are doing to the oppressed Palestinian people.
He actually accused the regime’s paramilitary forces of behaving in an even more brutal fashion than the Israelis!! A more vicious insult is inconceivable…
In fact, the regime is currently under pressure, and on the defensive, following the deaths of a number of detainees in Tehran jails these last few days.
Moshen Ruholamini, in his 20s, the son of a former adviser to president Ahmadinejad, died July 11th, two days after his arrest. The apparent cause was meningitis.
His father, Abdolhussein Rouholamini, was far from convinced:
when I saw his body I noticed that they had crushed his mouth. My son was an honest person. He wouldn't lie. I'm sure that he's given correct answers to anything they'd asked him. They probably couldn't stand his honesty and beat him until he died under torture.
Another protestor, Ramin Ghahremani, 30, who was arrested July 17th, died two days after having been released.
Amir Javadi-Langaroodi, 24, wounded by gunshot during a demonstration, died in Evin prison.
Amir Javadi-Far, a student, met a similar tragic fate.
These developments have dismayed even Ahmadinejad supporters, for they objectively serve the political interests of the opposition, and discredit the regime, at home and abroad.
It is widely assumed that those responsible are the Revolutionary Guards and the Basijis, the regime’s ideological watchdogs.
One member of parliament, the Majlis, Hamid Reza Katouzian, who has looked into the issue, said: the police and the Intelligence Ministry have said that they're not at the center of this and are not aware of who is responsible. Those who've created such a security environment and have been going forward with military force need to be held responsible.
The Supreme Leader himself has demanded that Iranian laws be respected.
As a result, the head of the Judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, vowed to release all those not suspected of serious crimes, while the fate of the others would be determined within one week.
The brutality of the means employed by the paramilitaries both in the streets and within Tehran’s prison cells may very well be undermining the conservative faction and shattering its unity.
And yet, the regime has not changed strategies. Perhaps it has no other.
On Sunday, a service held in honor of Moshen Rouholamini, was broken up by the paramilitaries. One witness told the The Washington Post:
we sat in the car and saw people being beaten by a crowd of over 200 members of the security forces. A plainclothes man and a policeman smashed the windows of another car and took the number plate. It was very scary.
The day before, Saturday, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and other groups, organized demonstrations in more than 80 cities around the world, denouncing the post-election crackdown, and demanding the release of all political prisoners.

Sherin Ebadi, the Iranian Noble Peace prize winner, spoke in Amsterdam, and advocated new elections supervised by the United Nations.
Attacked by the opposition, and human rights activists inside and outside of Iran, Ahmadinejad was also taken to task by his conservative supporters for having selected as first vice president Esfandiar Rahim Mashai (whose daughter married his son).
Mr. Mashai was considered too incompetent to hold the position, for, last year, he declared, boldly if recklessly, that Iranians were friends with peoples of all nations, including…Israel!
The Supreme Leader himself advised the president to reconsider, but he refused to do so…for an entire week.
Finally, he relented (the nominee withdrew his name from consideration), but then appointed him as his chief of staff.
The hardliners were not amused!
In addition, he fired his Intelligence chief, Gholam-Hossein Mosheni-Ejei, who had protested his choice for first vice president, while the Culture minister, who had done likewise, resigned … Both are close allies of the Supreme Leader.
A week before his inauguration on August 5th, Ahmadinejad clearly seeks to reassert himself, and preserve what little authority he still possesses.
An Iranian analyst, Amir Mohebbian told The Washington Post:
Ahmadinejad is now trying to counter this (the withdrawal of his vice presidential nominee) and wants to show himself as a strong leader. However, such actions will deal a heavy blow to his position among his supporters.
Are the Iranians about to experience a decisive, historical moment?
The fortieth day, the 12th Imams’s birthday, the August 5th inauguration…
These events offer Mousavi the unique (and perhaps his last) opportunity to lead the Iranians toward that noble goal of democracy and justice.
Will he be up to it?
So far, his performance has been uneven…
Iranians yearn for leadership:
the problem is, things are disorganized, one student told The New York Times on Sunday. If there was a leader with a party and they needed the support of the people, things would be different. We don’t want a revolution. We already had one of those and it didn’t work.
In all likelihood, many will follow if he dares to lead.
May he have the necessary fortitude and wisdom to do so…
(the photograph, taken in Paris July 25th, is by Jacques Brinon/AP)