Sarkozyism is alive and well

President’s Sarkozy’s party, the UMP, won a decisive victory last Sunday in the European Parliamentary Elections, even though voter participation was disappointingly low, with only 43% of Europeans, and 41% of Frenchman, going to the polls.
Held every five years to elect 785 Euro Mps, the UMP won 27.8% of the vote, and the main opposition party, the Socialist party (PS), 16.4%.
Four years ago, the results were practically the reverse, with the PS polling 29%, and the UMP 16% …
The UMP’s final tally was not far off Sarkozy’s first round showing in the Presidential election two years ago, which was 31%.
Considering the economic and social context, the UMP was visibly relieved.
The victory was all the more resounding as it was the first time since 1979 (the first direct election to the European Parliament) that the President’s party had managed
to prevail in the election.
An election with only one round, with proportional representation (a party winning 5% of the vote obtains 5% of the seats, 10%,10% and so on), opposition parties usually perform quite well, as the electorate seizes the opportunity to punish those in power for the deficiencies of their economic and social policies, knowing full well the elections results will have no impact on the coalition running the country.
Yet, the President and his majority were spared this time.
Why?
Firstly, Sarkozy’s performance as President of the EU (every six months, a European country, and its president or prime minister is responsible for leading the Union) won plaudits in France, as well as in Europe.
He was a driving force behind the Treaty of Lisbon, signed in December 2007.
Designed to end the political stalemate following the rejection by the French and the Dutch of the European Constitution in referenda held in 2005, the treaty sought to facilitate decision-making within the Union and create the posts of President of the EU, and High Representative for Foreign Affairs, to give the Union greater political coherence and visibility.
So far, it has been ratified by 23 of 27 nations…The process of ratification continues…
In addition, Sarkozy vigorously responded to the economic crisis both at home and abroad, and was instrumental, along with Gordon Brown of the UK, in organizing the G20 meetings, in November 2008 in New York, and April 2009 in London.
Sarkozy’s dynamism was considered opportune and reassuring by many of his countrymen.
On Sunday night, President Sarkozy issued a statement that said: the presidential majority has prevailed. The French demonstrated their appreciation of the efforts made during the French presidency of the EU, as well as those to confront this unprecedented global economic crisis…But this victory drives us to try even harder. Europe must change, and the reforms must be pursued.
Secondly, all other parties, with the notable exception of Europe Ecologie, failed to make any credible proposals, particularly on Europe, the object of the election, and concentrated on lambasting Sarkozy.
As a result, opposition to Sarkozy was clearly insufficient to attract voters.
The two parties most rabidly anti-Sarkozy performed poorly.
Le PS , thus, won 16% and le Modem (Mouvement Démocrate) 8.4%.
The anti-Sarkozy platform was tempting and convenient because it allowed a fractious PS to unify around one of the few themes they all could campaign on.
For François Bayrou, leader of the Modem, who many have accused of being obsessed with Sarkozy and the future 2012 Presidential election, he created the party to serve his political ambitions, the realization of which necessitate the political downfall of Sarkozy.
Martine Aubry, leader of le PS , was particularly shaken and undermined by the dismal showing, as it was her first campaign as party leader.
She conceded on Sunday night that the party had been weakened: the party suffered because it was divided, and incapable of achieving unity. This is not acceptable.
On the national level, le PS finished only 35,000 votes ahead of Europe Ecologie.
In the Paris region, it finished third, and the PS spokesman, Benoit Hamon failed to win reelection.
Even some Socialists believe the party has never recovered from the April 21st, 2002 disaster. That is the day outgoing prime minister Jospin finished third in the first round of the Presidential election, behind the much reviled far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, and Jacques Chirac and was thus eliminated.
It was the first time since 1969 that the PS had no candidate in the decisive run-off.
Chirac handily won re-election against Le Pen…
One up-and-coming leader, Arnaud Montebourg said: since April 21st, 2002, the PS has not moved, it’s been listless.
In fact, le PS has not won a national election since 1997...
The party is riven by personal rivalries and ideological differences.
With no undisputed leader, and no clear ideological direction, the party has been unable to effectively counter Sarkozy and l’UMP.
François Bayrou’s defeat was particularly acute. He neglected European issues, and preferred instead to excoriate Sarkozy on every possible subject.
Though Sarkozy does have his fair share of enemies, an electoral victory cannot be built simply on a systematic critique of the President’s style and policies. Some kind of alternative must also be proposed…And Bayrou failed to come up with a credible set of alternate policies.
The incident that perhaps sealed his fate took place Thursday June 4th, on national television. The latest polls showed that the ecologists had moved ahead of his own list, such that le Modem was now in fourth place…
A number of political leaders had been invited to discuss European issues, including Daniel Cohn-Bendit, leader of Europe Ecologie, and Bayrou.
A violent altercation took place between the two, that left the other guests flabbergasted…
After having been accused by Bayrou of deliberately sparing Sarkozy in this campaign, and of being a frequent lunch guest of the president, Cohn-Bendit retorted: hey, pal, you’ll never become president; you’re way too lame.
Incensed, Bayrou then accused Cohn-Bendit of having condoned acts of pedophilia in one of his books, written in 1975...Bayrou said I find it despicable for you to have provoked and justified such acts with children. I cannot accept this.
This is an old accusation that surfaced in 2001, and that Cohn-Bendit had addressed at the time, to everyone’s satisfaction, or so it seemed, for he had expressed regret for having written certain pages…
The incident, in many ways, is reminiscent of Ségolène Royal’s calculated outburst during her debate with Sarkozy, a few days before the decisive round of the 2007 Presidential elections.
Like Bayrou, behind in the polls, she had hoped that a violent confrontation would destabilize her opponent, make him look weak, or even worse, contemptuous, before a national television audience, thereby potentially altering the dynamics of the race, and perhaps, allowing her to prevail at the very end. It was a desperate attempt to change the course of events, the ultimate game changer, the fourth quarter and miraculous Hail Mary pass…
But it was not to be.
Royal was soundly beaten, and so was Bayrou!
In the present case, the incident cost Bayrou dearly: his list finished 8 points behind Cohn-Bendit’s.
On election night, Bayrou admitted the results were disappointing: during a very tough campaign, I was not able to put my message across. I did not consider that you could separate national and European issues, but I was not heard . And I let myself be dragged into an excessively polemical confrontation that alienated many.
Several of his advisors believe that he lost the elections that evening on television: the debate cost him between three and four points, said one. There are some things in a campaign that you cannot predict. That came from deep within him, and he was overwhelmed.
Bayrou compared himself to Zidane (the great, and retired French footballer), who, during the 2006 World Cup final against Italy, lost his cool, head butted an opponent, was expelled from the game, which the French then lost…
The clear winner, apart from Sarkozy, was Cohn-Bendit’s Europe Ecologie.
He was able to unite the various fractious currents of the French environmental movement, the leftist Verts, who were in Jospin’s socialist government between 1997 and 2002; the radical, anti-globalization wing, embodied by José Bové, who became an overnight sensation in France, by dismantling a McDonald’s fast food restaurant during a demonstration in the south of France a few years ago; the apolitical, represented by Nicolas Hulot, a TV personality who hosts a nature show; former Green Peace activists such as Yannick Jadot. Even Eva Joly, a former judge specializing in affairs of corruption, and now an ecologist, joined the movement.
In the first round of the 2007 Presidential election, the Vert candidate had received…1.57% of the vote.
Cohn-Bendit’s charisma, and deep passion for the European ideal did wonders during the campaign, and only he could have succeeded such a feat, uniting personalities who had never managed to work together.
A genuine European (he is a German national, born in France of Jewish-German parents, in 1945), he has been a Euro MP since 1994, and is not interested in being anything else.
Can the movement he created single handedly survive without him, as he will be in Strasbourg (parliamentary sessions alternately take place in Brussels and Strasbourg) for the next five years?
Unlikely, but it will be interesting to see what becomes of Europe Ecologie.
The party’s success also demonstrated the importance that environmental issues now have on the French, and more broadly, the European political scene.
In essence, thus, the two lists that talked politics won the election, which is reassuring…
Sarkozy’s victory is significant because it will facilitate his mission, and revitalize his program of reform, which was buffeted by the economic crisis.
New projects are in the works, as he inaugurates the second stage of his five year mandate.
Sarkozy’s principle opponents having been discredited by humiliating election defeats, he now has time to newly define his objectives, and move even faster on the road to the modernization of France.