Would it be willing to fire on demonstrators if ordered to do so by President Mubarak?
The future of his authoritarian and sclerotic regime depends on the answer to these questions.
The army, one of the few meritocratic institutions in the country which can provide decent careers to those of humble backgrounds, is widely respected in Egypt.
Yesterday, President Mubarak ordered his army to patrol the streets in order to try and restore a semblance of order in the country, a task the police seems no longer capable of fulfilling.
As such, it is the army that is now guarding the capital’s strategic sites and buildings.
It has also been instructed to enforce the curfew in Cairo, between 4PM and 8AM.
The police has, for the most part, vanished.
Yesterday in Cairo, protesters, after a day-long struggle, finally overwhelmed the police and took control of the Kasr al-Nil bridge, which leads to Tahrir Square (Liberation Square), a rallying point for Cairo’s demonstrators.
In Alexandria meanwhile, the police also retreated, unable to subdue the thousands demonstrating against the regime.
There is no government in Alexandria now. They are all hiding, Muhammd Ahmed Ibrahim, a twenty-two-year old protester, told the NYT.
For the first time in the history of the Mubarak regime, the capacity of the police was completely exhausted. The police state broke down today, Peter Bouckaert, of HRW, told the NYT.
When the long confrontation which ended in their defeat was over, police officers actually shook hands with protesters and shared bottles of water with them.
The police however, is widely despised in Egypt, and for good reason.
According to cables recently released by WikiLeaks, police brutality is routine and pervasive.
The emergency law, imposed by Mubarak after the assassination of his predecessor, Anwar el Sadat in 1981, allowed the police to operate at will, as it saw fit, and above the law if need be.
The police use brutal methods against common criminals to extract confessions, but also against demonstrators, certain political prisoners and unfortunate bystanders.
One human rights lawyer told us there is evidence of torture in Egypt dating back to the time of the pharaohs. NGO contacts estimate there are literally hundreds of torture incidents every day in Cairo police stations alone, according to one cable.
Even today, some apartment dwellers are loathe to report burglaries due to the predictable consequences: the torture of all the doormen is standard procedure.
Saturday, demonstrators once again took to Cairo’s streets in the tens of thousands, according to The Guardian’s Jack Shenker.
Thousands did likewise in Alexandria.
Friday night, President Mubarak spoke on national television and vowed to protect the nation’s security. He also announced that he had dismissed his cabinet and would appoint a new one to initiate a program of reforms essential to the nation’s future.
Yet, he made few, if any, concessions.
He did not tender his resignation.
He did not call for new parliamentary elections, that would be both free and fair.
He also failed to announce that September’s Presidential elections would be open and conducted according to established international standards.
Finally, he said nothing about repealing the emergency law…
Only concessions of this magnitude could perhaps assuage those rebelling against his rule in the streets.
Instead, he appointed Omar Suleiman, a close ally, and hitherto Director of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service since 1993, (the Mukhabarat) as Vice President, a post that he had held vacant so as not to encourage any potential rivals.
Does this nomination signify that the Egyptians will be spared the ordeal of being ruled by Mubarak’s son, Gamal, come September?
He also appointed a former Air Force commander, and outgoing civil aviation minister, Ahmed Shafiq as his new Prime Minister.
These changes are merely cosmetic and do not fundamentally alter either the regime, or its nature, and, as such, should hardly suffice to resolve the crisis.
The problem is he is a corrupt president and had a corrupt government and if he brings a new government, it will also be corrupt since the system is all corrupt, as one demonstrator told Al Jazeera
We are seeking a change of regime. President Mubarak should step down. We should head towards a democratic state through a new government and free democratic elections. The world should realize that the Egyptians are not going home until their demands are realized. We are talking about taking down the Pharaonic dictatorship, Mohamed Elbaradei told Al Jazeera.
It is time to urge Mubarak to resign and support Elbaradei and all those striving to establish a democratic regime in Egypt.
President Obama, for his part declared when President Mubarak addressed the Egyptian people tonight, he pledged a better democracy and greater economic opportunity. I just spoke to him after his speech and I told him he had a responsibility to give meaning to those words, to take concrete steps and actions that deliver on that promise.
That is simply not sufficient.
The only way that Mubarak can now serve his people is by stepping down…
The Washington Post, in an editorial called The US needs to break with Mubarak now, crossed the rubicund.
The United States should be using all of its influence-including the more than $1 billion in aid it supplies annually to the Egyptian military-to ensure the latter outcome, that is to say Mubarak’s resignation.
Saturday morning, the police did reemerge in Cairo and fired on those demonstrators attempting to storm the Interior Ministry building.
In the last twenty-four hours, over 100 demonstrators have been killed by the security forces, according to Al Jazeera.
Only the army can now save Mubarak.
We should be doing our utmost to ensure it does nothing of the kind…
(the photograph of demonstrators fraternising with soldiers in Cairo is by Hannibal Hanschke/EPA)
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